By Lukas Herrmann
The European Union is currently wasting a historic opportunity to support a democratic and feminist revolution in Iran. The Iranian people’s movement stands in stark contrast to the external “democratization” project of Iraq by the Anglo-American alliance in 2003 since it comes entirely from within the country. Thus far, whenever there was a democratic movement in Iran, the West has either ignored it or signaled support for the Islamic Republic. But this time it is different. Mere weeks ago, we had a historic vote in the European Parliament with almost all MPs voting in favor of declaring the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization. Furthermore, the former president of the US, Barack Obama, recently admitted that not supporting the Green Movement in 2009 was a mistake. However, despite the revolutionary protests in Iran having reached a level without precedent since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, neither the EU nor the US have openly sided with the Iranian people. Instead, we see a continuity, and in some cases a deepening, of the ties between western countries and the Islamic Republic.
Whenever there were democratic movements in Iran, the Islamic Republic has claimed that without them, the country would turn into another Syria or Afghanistan and fall into a state of disrepair and civil war. The Mullahs resort to this claim whenever they feel threatened because even though it is far from the truth, as evident in the unity of the Iranian people, they know that the mere thought of this scenario scares their western trading partners. This is especially true in the case of Germany, which has much deeper economic and political ties to the Islamic Republic than most people are aware of. Indeed, no European country engages in trade with the theocratic regime as much as Germany does. Moreover, the German federal government allows the Islamic Republic to control a radical Islamist network within Germany, spearheaded by the Islamisches Zentrum Hamburg (IZH) which is under direct control of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime’s supreme leader. This information is included in the yearly report of the Verfassungsschutz, Germany’s domestic intelligence service.
On the JCPoA
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or nuclear deal serves to empower the Islamic Republic and legitimizes it on the international stage. Moreover, it signals to the Ayatollahs that they can continue to oppress and mass murder the Iranian people as well as kidnap and execute foreign nationals and threaten to destroy Israel without any repercussions. Therefore, it is of vital importance that the West, which has thus far continued to promote the nuclear deal as the sole means to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear weapon, lets go of the false hope that the mullahs are trustworthy partners who are going to honor such an agreement. By continuing to pursue negotiations, even at an 84% level of uranium enrichment by the Islamic Republic and the imminent execution of EU citizens, the West sends a signal of weakness and unwillingness to cut its ties to the theocratic regime. Furthermore, it throws a lifeline to the Islamic Republic which is currently trying to prevent its overthrow by the Iranian revolution by offering the mullahs hundreds of billions of dollars that it could use to suppress the revolution and further develop its ballistic missile program while secretly working on further uranium enrichment. This is the reason why the regime’s lobby organizations in the West, most notably NIAC, are constantly promoting the JCPoA. One notable example of this occurred after the last presidential election in the US, when NIAC wrote a letter to the then president-elect Joseph Biden, in an attempt to pressure him into a swift return to the nuclear deal.
On the geopolitical importance of the democratic revolution in Iran
There are seven key aspects which need to be discussed when considering the geopolitical importance of the Iranian revolution:
1. A democratic Iran would be a natural ally for the EU and US in a region where democracy and the promotion of human rights are far from the norm. It could be a vital trading partner that does not blackmail other countries to further its own interests via kidnapping and execution of foreign nationals, like the Islamic Republic does. Iran has some of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world as well as large amounts of other natural resources, which could help to make the EU less dependent on trade with autocratic regimes.
2. With the fall of the Islamic Republic, the main cause for instability in the Middle East would be gone. The theocratic regime is involved in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and various other countries through its proxies and financing of terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas. Its fall would serve to stabilize the Middle East which in turn would directly benefit the EU. For instance, without the mullahs’ funding of terrorist organizations and the destabilizing activities of the IRGC in Iran’s neighboring countries, less people would feel the need to make their way to Europe as refugees. This would not only remove a key factor of conflict between EU member states but also take away some of the political leverage that countries like Turkey have to blackmail the EU.
3. For many years the Islamic Republic has been in conflict with Israel and has even openly declared its goal to “wipe Israel off the map.” The fall of the regime would remove the constant existential threat to Israel and the two countries could reestablish the peaceful diplomatic relations they had before the Islamic Revolution. Indeed, the shared history of Iranians and Israelites goes back over 2500 years, when the Iranian Shahanshah (King of Kings) Cyrus the Great conquered the city of Babylon in the year 539 BC and allowed the Jewish people there to return to their homeland and rebuild their temple.
4. Another key aspect which needs to be considered when discussing the positive impact of the democratic revolution in Iran on the rest of the world is, that not only middle eastern but also western countries would become safer, especially for the Iranian and Israeli diaspora. The Islamic Republic is known for threatening, kidnapping and outright murdering Iranians who live abroad. Furthermore, both Swedish and German citizens are currently facing imminent execution in Iran. There are also investigations into attacks on synagogues in Germany which are believed to be linked to the IRGC. Considering Germany’s history, the federal government should feel an even stronger incentive to support the Iranian revolution against a regime that intends to destroy Israel, participates in holocaust denial and threatens Jewish people around the world.
5. For years, the future implications of Chinese imperialism and economic expansionism have worried western policy makers. Under the rule of the Ayatollahs, Iran has become a key strategic ally of the Chinese Communist Party in the Middle East. After the Islamic Republic’s current president, Ebrahim Raisi, took office, China and the Islamic Republic signed a 25-year deal that grants China far-reaching rights to exploit Iran’s vast natural resources as well as to station military within Iran’s borders. Taking the side of the Iranian people and supporting their overthrow of the mullahs’ theocratic dictatorship would therefore also serve to counteract Chinese imperialism and political influence in the Middle East.
6. In the last two decades, the West has faced a clear credibility problem when it comes to the support of democracy and human rights. This is a multi-facetted issue, however, two main reasons for this have been the Iraq-War in 2003 and the West’s continuous strengthening of diplomatic and economic ties with autocratic regimes such as the Islamic Republic, China and Russia. Through supporting a democratic revolution that comes from within Iran and promotes equal rights for all citizens as well as peaceful relations with other countries, the West could regain some of the credibility it may once have had on the international stage when it comes to the upholding of human rights and democracy.
7. Last but not least, the overthrow of a dictatorship and tightly controlled police state like the Islamic Republic that seeks to control all sectors of society, could serve as a precedent and inspire future revolutionary movements in other countries that are currently being ruled by autocratic regimes. It could be a beacon of hope for the people of Afghanistan, China and numerous other countries who wish to live in a democratic state that is part of the international community and respects their dignity and human rights.
There is a deep wish for democracy in Iran which has grown ever since at least the Constitutional Revolution in the beginning of the 20th century. It is time for the West to recognize that there is no going back to the status quo with the Islamic Republic and that the positive impact of the establishment of a democracy in Iran will reach far beyond the country’s own borders.